ALLOWANCE FOR CREDIT LOSSES
|6 Months Ended|
Jun. 30, 2023
|Credit Loss [Abstract]|
|Allowance for Credit Losses||ALLOWANCE FOR CREDIT LOSSES
Allowance for Credit Losses - Roll-forward
The following tables present ACL activity by portfolio segment for the three-month and six-month periods ended June 30, 2023 and 2022.
At June 30, 2023, the ACL was $2.3 billion, an increase of $71 million compared to December 31, 2022.
The commercial ACL was $1.6 billion at June 30, 2023 and $1.5 billion at December 31, 2022. The increase of $66 million since year end was driven by a combination of loan and lease growth and modest deterioration in the macro-economic forecast.
The consumer ACL was $781 million, relatively flat compared to the December 31, 2022 balance of $776 million.
The baseline economic scenario used in the June 30, 2023 ACL determination included the federal funds rate projected to peak at approximately 5.1% in the third quarter of 2023 as the Federal Reserve continues to address elevated inflation levels. As a result, inflation is forecast to drop from an estimated 8.0% in 2022 to 2.5% by 2024. However, unemployment is expected to gradually increase to a projected level of 4.2% by Q4 2024.The economic scenarios used included elevated levels of economic uncertainty associated with geopolitical instability, high inflation readings, and the expected path of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve. Given the uncertainty associated with key economic scenario assumptions, the June 30, 2023 ACL included a general reserve that consists of various risk profile components to capture uncertainty not addressed within the quantitative transaction reserve.
The entire disclosure for allowance for credit losses.
Reference 1: http://fasb.org/us-gaap/role/ref/legacyRef